Galaxy Digital has lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in the U.S. Senate to 10%: what lies behind analysts' pessimism
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act, a bill designed to regulate the legal status of cryptocurrency assets and stablecoins in the United States. According to my latest assessment, the probability that the initiative will be approved by the Senate in 2026 now stands at only 10%. This is a significant decline from previous expectations, reflecting the growing complexity of the political landscape surrounding digital assets.
Key obstacles to the bill
The main disagreements, as I see them, center on two critical aspects. First, there are ethical standards for government officials—an issue that traditionally sparks fierce debate in Congress, especially when it comes to financial innovation. Second, provisions on stablecoin yield remain a sticking point: lawmakers cannot reach a consensus on whether issuers should share interest income with holders, and how to regulate this at the federal level.
The time factor works against the bill's supporters. After lawmakers return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks before the campaign season begins ahead of the midterm elections. During this period, political will typically focuses on issues more pressing to voters, while complex technical bills take a back seat.
My analysis of the situation
From my perspective, this turn of events is not unexpected. Cryptocurrency regulation in the United States has historically faced the problem of fragmentation: too many stakeholders, too many jurisdictional disputes between the SEC and CFTC, and too little time to thoroughly work out the details. Even if the CLARITY Act is not passed in this cycle, its provisions are likely to form the basis for future initiatives—the market simply cannot ignore the need for clear rules for stablecoins, whose volume continues to grow.
Investors should prepare for continued regulatory uncertainty in the short term, but this is no reason for panic. History shows that significant legislative changes in the financial sector rarely happen quickly, yet they are inevitable once an industry reaches a certain scale. I recommend closely monitoring Senate debates in the coming weeks—even a failed attempt at passage could provide important signals about the future direction of policy.