Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The Russian banking sector is preparing for a full-scale entry into the cryptocurrency operations market, and the starting conditions for clients will be far from the most attractive. At the initial stage, spreads will be noticeably higher than on classic crypto exchanges, but it is unlikely that banks will be able to maintain margins at 5–7% or more amid growing competition.
Why spreads will be high at first and then decline
At launch, banks will have to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could easily reach several basis points. However, as an analysis of market dynamics shows, such figures are not viable in the long term.
As soon as several major banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly. Ultimately, the spread will be shaped by the market itself, not the regulator. It will be composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure expenses, and the margin of a specific bank. Notably, the Central Bank of Russia will most likely focus on regulating access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, rather than setting specific quotes — so markups may vary significantly across different banks.
Within an individual bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of its own liquidity, which will be required on the balance sheet in significant amounts. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary factors, although important ones.
Who will win the battle for the client
Victory in the new crypto economy will go to those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks for a dominant position. And this is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers and competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. In essence, the mechanism will resemble the foreign exchange market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass-market client is currently not ready to overpay for the mere word "bank." This is linked to the high level of stress in retail since 2022: the Russian user is willing to accept many scenarios to meet their needs, except one — an unjustifiably high cost of service. The picture is different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average ticket of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whom such a client will prefer — their own accountant or a Russian bank — is rhetorical.
My view: banks that can offer competitive spreads at the start will gain a decisive advantage in the fight for the affluent audience. Inflated markups at an early stage will only accelerate the outflow of clients to unregulated channels and P2P platforms, where costs have long been minimized.