Galaxy Digital lowers its forecast for the CLARITY Act: chances of passage drop to 10%
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop compared to previous estimates, reflecting growing political tension and uncertainty surrounding digital asset regulation.
The key factor holding back the initiative's progress remains unresolved disputes over a number of fundamental provisions. In particular, this concerns the introduction of ethical standards for government officials who will be involved in working with cryptocurrency markets, as well as mechanisms for distributing yield from stablecoins. These issues are causing serious disagreements among lawmakers, which significantly slows down the reconciliation process.
The time window for passing the bill is also critically narrowing. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks for full consideration and voting. The approaching midterm elections inevitably shift politicians' priorities toward the campaign agenda, making prompt advancement of the CLARITY Act unlikely.
In my view, this dynamic is an alarming signal for the entire crypto sector. The lack of a clear legislative framework in the U.S. continues to push innovative projects to relocate to jurisdictions with more predictable regulation. If the CLARITY Act is not passed this year, the market will face an even longer period of legal uncertainty, which could increase volatility and reduce the inflow of institutional capital.