Galaxy Digital sharply lowered its forecast for the chances of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate: only 10%
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its passage in 2026 to a modest 10%. This is a significant drop from previous estimates, reflecting growing skepticism among experts about the initiative's prospects in the current political climate.
A key factor undermining the bill's chances is the presence of unresolved political disagreements. In particular, ethical standards for government officials have become a stumbling block, sparking fierce disputes in relevant committees. Additionally, serious debates have unfolded over provisions concerning the distribution of stablecoin yields—an issue that remains highly sensitive for both parties, as it affects the interests of major issuers and the banking sector.
The time window for advancing the CLARITY Act is critically narrowing. After lawmakers return from recess on September 14, supporters of the initiative will have only two to three weeks for its consideration. The approaching midterm elections will inevitably shift politicians' attention to the campaign agenda, making prompt voting nearly impossible. In such a situation, even lobbying efforts by the largest players in the crypto industry are unlikely to radically change the balance of power.
It is worth emphasizing that such delays are not uncommon for complex financial legislation, but for the market, this is a signal of persistent regulatory uncertainty. Industry participants who expected clear rules of the game are forced to continue operating in a legal vacuum, which hampers institutional investment.
My expert view: The drop in probability to 10% is not just a number but an indicator of a systemic crisis in the U.S. legislative process. While the Senate remains mired in ethical and fiscal disputes, other jurisdictions, such as the EU and the UAE, will continue to actively implement their own regulatory frameworks, drawing crypto business toward themselves. For long-term investors, this means the American market risks being left on the sidelines of the global race for leadership in digital assets.