Competition will force Russian banks to reduce spreads on cryptocurrency.
The entry of Russian banks into the cryptocurrency operations market will inevitably lead to a restructuring of pricing. At the initial stage, spreads will be noticeably higher than on classic crypto exchanges, but maintaining a markup of 5–7% or more in a competitive market will not be possible. This is a matter of time and the number of players.
The key factor that will determine the price for the client is not at all the bank's appetite for excess profits. The decisive role will be played by the cost of liquidity, the client's willingness to pay for a regulated framework, and the difference compared to familiar fiat transfer channels. Banks will have to factor into the spread the costs of compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure, which at the start could add several basis points to the price.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
My analysis shows: as soon as several banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly. The market, not the regulator, will shape the final spread. It will be formed from the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the specific bank's margin. Those who try to maintain a markup of 5–7% will simply lose clients.
It is important to understand the role of the Central Bank. It will regulate the rules of access, the composition of participants, and the market infrastructure, but it will not set specific buy and sell quotes. Therefore, markups may vary significantly across different banks, especially in the first months of operation.
Who will win the race for the client
Victory will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a higher willingness to take risks for a dominant position in the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers and competition there are among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism will resemble the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass client is not ready to overpay for the mere word "bank." The level of stress among the retail audience has been high since 2022: the user is willing to accept many scenarios to meet their need, but not an unjustifiably high cost of service. The picture is different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Such a client would rather choose a Russian bank than their own accountant — the question is rhetorical.
My conclusion: the banking sector will inevitably democratize cryptocurrency prices in Russia. Competition for solvent demand will force players to optimize costs, and by the end of the first year of operation, spreads could approach the levels of major international platforms. The only question is who will be the first to adopt an aggressive pricing policy.