Galaxy Digital has lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage in 2026 are estimated at 10%.
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This move reflects growing uncertainty surrounding the legislative initiative, which was expected to become a key driver for regulating the cryptocurrency market in the States.
The main stumbling blocks remain unresolved political disagreements. In particular, this concerns the introduction of ethical standards for government officials and mechanisms for distributing yield from stablecoins. These aspects are sparking fierce debates both among lawmakers and industry participants, significantly slowing down the bill's progress.
A critical factor is also the time window. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks for full consideration and voting. The approaching midterm elections inevitably shift politicians' priorities toward the pre-election agenda, leaving little room for complex and controversial legislative initiatives.
In its current form, the CLARITY Act, even if it gets a chance to pass, would require significant concessions and compromises, which is unlikely to happen within such a tight timeframe. The market is already pricing in a high degree of uncertainty, and investors should be prepared for a prolonged process of regulatory clarity.
My comment: Lowering the probability to 10% looks like a realistic assessment, given the political calendar and the depth of disagreements. However, the bill should not be written off entirely — even partial progress in negotiations could create positive momentum for the market, but only after the elections.