Banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: why high fees are doomed to decline
Russian banks beginning operations with cryptocurrency will face inevitable market pressure. Contrary to expectations of super-profits, maintaining a markup of 5–7% or higher on a competitive field will not be possible. This is confirmed by the basic laws of supply and demand, as well as the cost structure that will fall on the shoulders of the first players.
Why the start will be expensive but short-lived
At the initial stage, banks will be forced to factor significant operational costs into the price for the client: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, which is natural for any new market with a high entry threshold.
However, such spreads are not sustainable. As soon as several large banks and other regulated participants enter the market, a price war will begin. The mechanism will resemble the classic foreign exchange market, where margins are compressed under competitive pressure rather than set administratively.
The role of the regulator and market forces
It is important to understand: the Bank of Russia will not dictate specific buy or sell quotes. Its task is to regulate access rules, the composition of participants, and the overall infrastructure. The final spread will be shaped by the market, not the regulator. It will be derived from the global price of the asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, and the margin of a specific bank. Within a single credit institution, the markup will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the costs of balancing.
Secondary factors, such as the legal structure and infrastructure expenses, will also play a role but will not be decisive. The winner will be the one with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy.
Who will win the fight for the client
The mass retail client is no longer willing to pay simply for the word "bank." The level of stress among the retail audience has been high since 2022, and the user is open to many scenarios except one—an unjustifiably inflated cost of service. Wealthy clients, however, are a completely different matter. Large capital continues to migrate between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whether they will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank remains rhetorical.
My analysis: The Russian banking cryptocurrency market will develop according to a "rapid saturation" scenario. The first players will try to monetize the shortage, but within 6–12 months, spreads will approach market values. The key factor is not regulation, but the speed at which competitors enter and the willingness to dump prices to gain a client base. Banks that bet on premium service and technological sophistication, rather than greed, will take leading positions.