Galaxy Digital lowers its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage in 2026 are estimated at 10%.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This decision reflects ongoing political disagreements that continue to stall the initiative's progress, despite its potential significance for regulating the cryptocurrency market.
Several fundamental aspects remain key sticking points. First and foremost, there are unresolved questions about ethical standards for government officials who may be involved in transactions with digital assets. Additionally, the provision on stablecoin yield is controversial—a mechanism that could significantly impact issuers and holders of such assets but requires careful consideration from a financial stability perspective.
The time window for passing the bill is critically narrowing. After lawmakers return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks before the campaign season begins ahead of the midterm elections. Such a tight schedule virtually eliminates the possibility of full discussion and voting on a complex and multifaceted document, which explains the low probability assessment.
In my view, the current situation demonstrates a fundamental problem: regulation of the crypto industry in the U.S. is becoming hostage to the political calendar. Even if the CLARITY Act is not passed this year, its key provisions, especially those concerning stablecoins, will certainly become the basis for future legislative initiatives. The market should prepare for a prolonged period of uncertainty, where every regulatory step will have long-term consequences for the entire ecosystem.