Galaxy Digital has lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act's passage to 10%: political risks and deadlines.
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop compared to previous estimates, reflecting the growing complexity of the political landscape surrounding cryptocurrency industry regulation.
Key obstacles remain unresolved disagreements over several provisions of the document. In particular, this concerns ethical standards for government officials who may participate in regulating digital assets, as well as controversial rules regarding stablecoin yields. These issues are sparking heated debates both among lawmakers and within the industry community, significantly slowing the initiative's progress.
The Window of Opportunity Is Closing
Additional pressure comes from deadlines. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks to review and vote on the bill. The approaching midterm elections will inevitably divert politicians' attention to campaign activities, making passage of the CLARITY Act in the current session highly unlikely.
My assessment of the situation: even if the bill is not passed this year, its provisions will serve as a foundation for further negotiations. However, current dynamics show that the market should not expect a quick clarification of regulatory rules for stablecoins. Investors and issuers should prepare for prolonged uncertainty, which will continue to affect liquidity and asset allocation strategies in the coming months.