Galaxy Digital lowers its forecast for the CLARITY Act: chances of passage drop to 10%
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This decision reflects growing uncertainty surrounding the initiative, which faces a number of unresolved political contradictions.
Key sticking points remain ethical standards for government officials, as well as controversial provisions concerning the distribution of yields from stablecoins. These aspects are causing serious disagreements among lawmakers, significantly slowing the progress of the document.
The timing factor adds particular urgency to the situation. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks to consider the initiative before the campaign season begins ahead of the midterm elections. Such a tight schedule leaves virtually no room for compromises and detailed discussion, making swift passage of the law unlikely.
In my view, this is a signal that cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. is once again taking a back seat to political priorities. Even if the CLARITY Act is ultimately passed, delays create uncertainty for the market, which negatively affects institutional investors awaiting clear rules of the game. Without clarity in regulating stablecoins and other digital assets, we will continue to see capital outflows to more predictable jurisdictions.