Competition will force Russian banks to reduce spreads on cryptocurrency.
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will begin with inflated spreads, but maintaining a markup of 5–7% or higher in a competitive market will not be possible. This is the conclusion I reach by analyzing current dynamics and expert assessments in the field of transactional banking and payments.
The key factor that will determine the price for the client is not so much the bank's desire to earn, but rather the real cost of liquidity, the client's willingness to overpay for a regulated framework, and the difference compared to familiar fiat transfer channels. At the start, banks will have to factor into the price the costs of compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, but such a situation will not be sustainable.
As new banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly. The market, not the regulator, will ultimately shape the fair spread. It will be composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the specific bank's margin. The Bank of Russia, as I see it, will focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but will not set specific buy and sell quotes. Therefore, markups may vary significantly among different banks.
Who Will Win the Battle for the Client
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of collateral on balance sheets. Secondary factors include infrastructure costs and the legal structure. Victory will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors.
The more liquidity providers and competition there are among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism here resembles the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff. The mass client is currently not ready to pay for the word "bank" alone. Since 2022, the stress level of the retail audience has been high: the Russian user agrees to many scenarios to meet their needs, but not to an unjustifiably high cost of service.
The picture is different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Which one such a client will prefer—their own accountant or a Russian bank—is a rhetorical question.
My conclusion: in the short term, banks will try to monetize the shortage of regulated channels, but the medium-term trend is obvious—competition and the influx of liquidity will level out spreads. The key battleground will not be price, but the quality of service and the speed of transaction processing.