Crypto news

Analysts at Galaxy Digital have adjusted their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This decision reflects ongoing political disagreements that continue to stall the bill's progress, despite its importance for regulating the cryptocurrency market.

Key sticking points remain issues related to ethical standards for government officials, as well as controversial provisions on stablecoin yields. These aspects are sparking active debate among both lawmakers and the financial community, significantly complicating the achievement of consensus.

Particular attention is drawn to the time factor: after senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks to consider the initiative before the election campaign begins. The midterm elections will inevitably shift politicians' focus to electoral priorities, making prompt passage of the law unlikely.

Under current conditions, the cryptocurrency market faces uncertainty in the regulatory environment, which is restraining institutional investment and innovative activity. The lack of clear rules for stablecoins and other digital assets continues to create risks for industry participants awaiting clarity from U.S. authorities.

Nevertheless, even with the low probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year, the very fact of its discussion signals growing recognition of the crypto industry at the highest political level. This could lay the groundwork for more constructive dialogue in the future, especially if market conditions and the political landscape change.

My expert view: Lowering the forecast to 10% looks realistic, given the Senate's tight schedule and pre-election dynamics. However, investors should not view this as a complete failure—rather, as a delay that could lead to more balanced and well-developed regulation in the long term.