Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act: only a 10% chance of passage in 2026.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, reducing the likelihood of its approval to 10% in 2026. This is a significant decrease compared to previous estimates, reflecting the growing complexity of the political landscape surrounding cryptocurrency regulation.
Key obstacles remain unresolved disagreements on a number of fundamental provisions. First and foremost, this concerns ethical standards for government officials—a point that sparks fierce debate among lawmakers. The second contentious issue is rules regarding stablecoin yields, where the interests of issuers and regulators directly collide.
The time window for passing the initiative is critically narrowing. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks before the start of the election campaign. The midterm elections will inevitably shift politicians' attention to electoral priorities, pushing crypto regulation to the back burner.
Galaxy Digital emphasizes that even if the bill gains support in the Senate, its further path through the House of Representatives and the reconciliation of the final version will become an even more labor-intensive process. Under current conditions, where every week counts, the likelihood of successfully passing all stages is extremely low.
My expert assessment: reducing the probability to 10% looks realistic, but not final. The crypto industry has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to mobilize lobbying resources at the last moment. However, without consensus on ethical standards and stablecoins, the CLARITY Act risks remaining merely a declaration of intent. Investors should prepare for prolonged regulatory uncertainty—this will weigh on the market until the end of the year.