Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in the U.S. Senate to 10%.
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act, lowering the probability of its approval by the U.S. Senate in 2026 to a modest 10%. This is a significant drop compared to previous estimates, reflecting growing skepticism about the initiative's prospects in the current political climate.
The key stumbling blocks remain unresolved political contradictions. First and foremost, this concerns ethical standards for government officials, which still spark heated debates among lawmakers. Additionally, the provision on stablecoin yields causes serious disagreements—this point has become a real point of tension between various factions in Congress.
The time window for advancing the bill is critically shrinking. After senators return from recess on September 14, supporters of the initiative will have only two to three weeks before the start of the campaign season ahead of the midterm elections. During this period, the political agenda will inevitably shift toward electoral campaigns, leaving virtually no room for complex legislative maneuvers.
Of particular concern is the fact that the CLARITY Act, designed to bring clarity to cryptocurrency market regulation, may fall victim to political circumstances. In conditions where every week counts and no compromise on key provisions has been reached, the feasibility of passing the bill in its current form looks increasingly elusive.
My analysis: The drop in probability to 10% is not just a number, but a signal to the market that institutional players are beginning to factor a scenario of prolonged regulatory vacuum into their strategies. For the industry, this means that betting on a quick clarification of the rules of the game may not pay off, and companies should prepare to continue operating in conditions of uncertainty at least until the next electoral cycle.