Banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: why high fees won't last long
The Russian banking sector is preparing to launch cryptocurrency operations, but the first steps will be marked by inflated spreads. This is an inevitable stage in the market's development; however, in my assessment, it will be short-lived. The key factor that will break the current pricing model is competition, not administrative regulation.
At the outset, banks will be forced to factor significant costs into the price of their services: liquidity, compliance, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making spreads significantly higher than on classic crypto exchanges. However, maintaining a margin of 5–7% or more in a competitive market will not be possible.
Why spreads will first rise and then decline
Initially, banks will compensate for their costs at the expense of clients—this is a natural mechanism. But market dynamics will make adjustments. As soon as several major players and regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress. The spread will be shaped not so much by the bank's desire to profit as by the real cost of liquidity and the client's willingness to pay for a regulated framework.
It is important to understand: the Central Bank of Russia will likely focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, rather than setting specific quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks. Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of funding. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary.
Who will win the battle for the client
Success in this race will be determined not so much by the size of capital as by the willingness to spend on marketing and take risks to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors—the mass client is not yet ready to pay for the word "bank" as such. After 2022, the level of trust in retail financial institutions has declined, and users are willing to accept many scenarios except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service.
The situation is completely different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to migrate between jurisdictions, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Such a client will choose between their own accountant and a Russian bank—and the answer is obvious.
My conclusion: bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia are a temporary phenomenon. The market will quickly reach equilibrium, where the price will be determined by competition for liquidity and service quality, not administrative barriers. Investors should wait for stabilization before making decisions about long-term operations through banking channels.