Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act being passed in the U.S.: only 10% remain.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act, a bill designed to bring clarity to the regulation of the U.S. cryptocurrency market. According to my latest assessment, the probability that the Senate will approve this document in 2026 now stands at only 10%. This is a significant decline from previous expectations, and the reasons for such pessimism are quite objective.
The main stumbling block remains unresolved political contradictions that continue to hinder the progress of the initiative. In particular, this concerns two key aspects: first, ethical standards for government officials who may become involved in operations with digital assets, and second, controversial provisions regarding the distribution of yield from stablecoins. These issues are sparking fierce debates both among lawmakers and in lobbying circles, making a compromise unlikely in the short term.
The time window is also becoming a critically important factor. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks left before the midterm elections. During this period, the political agenda will be entirely shifted toward election campaigning, and complex technical bills like the CLARITY Act will almost certainly be shelved. Any delay in such a tight schedule automatically reduces the chances of a favorable vote.
From my point of view, the current situation reflects a deeper problem: the American regulatory process is becoming increasingly hostage to the political calendar. Even if the CLARITY Act is ultimately passed, its content could be hollowed out by endless concessions, negating the original goal—creating clear and predictable rules for the industry. Investors and market participants should prepare for the fact that legal uncertainty in the U.S. will persist at least until the next political cycle.