Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act passing: analysts see only a 10% probability.
In my latest analysis of legislative initiatives in the digital assets sector, I highlighted a significant deterioration in the prospects of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate. According to my assessments, based on current political dynamics, the likelihood of this bill being approved in 2026 now stands at only 10%—a notable decline compared to the more optimistic forecasts voiced earlier this year.
The key factors undermining the initiative's passage remain unresolved political disagreements. Chief among these are ethical standards for public officials—a point that sparks fierce disputes between factions. Additionally, provisions concerning stablecoin yields have become a serious stumbling block: regulators and lawmakers cannot reach a consensus on whether issuers should share interest income with token holders.
The time window for passing the bill is critically narrowing. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks before the campaign season kicks off ahead of the midterm elections. During this period, lawmakers' priorities will inevitably shift toward political campaigns, making it unlikely that full hearings and votes on complex technical issues of crypto regulation will take place.
From my professional perspective, this situation reflects a broader trend: cryptocurrency legislation in the U.S. is becoming hostage to the political calendar. Even technically well-crafted initiatives, such as the CLARITY Act, risk being postponed indefinitely. Market participants should prepare for the possibility that regulatory clarity at the federal level may not be achieved before 2027, which creates additional risks for institutional investors who need a predictable legal environment for long-term planning.