Banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: why competition will crush margins
The launch of banking operations with cryptocurrency in Russia will be marked by inflated spreads—noticeably higher than on classic crypto exchanges. However, players will not be able to sustain a markup of 5–7% or more in a competitive market. This is the conclusion I reach by analyzing the current cost structure and the behavior of participants in the emerging market.
The key pricing factor is not the bank's appetite for profit, but the cost of liquidity, the client's willingness to pay for a regulated framework, and the difference compared to familiar fiat transfer channels. At the start, banks will be forced to factor into the price the costs of compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure. In individual products, the markup can easily reach several basis points, and in some cases—even more substantial amounts.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
I do not see sustainable prerequisites for maintaining spreads at the level of 5–7% or higher. As soon as several banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly. The market, not the regulator, will determine the final spread. It will consist of the global price of the crypto asset plus the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the margin of a specific bank.
The Central Bank, apparently, will focus on access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, rather than on setting specific buy and sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks—at least at the initial stage.
Who will win the battle for the client
Within an individual bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity in the order book, and the cost of liquidity for the bank itself. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary. Victory will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a higher willingness to take risks for dominance in the new economy.
The mass client is not ready to overpay for the word "bank" itself. Since 2022, the stress level of the retail audience has been high: the user agrees to many scenarios except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service. The picture is different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whom such a client will prefer—their own accountant or a Russian bank—is rhetorical.
My conclusion: banks that are the first to build reliable liquidity and offer competitive spreads will capture a significant market share. The rest will have to either dump prices or retreat into the premium service niche. In the long term, margins will trend toward the levels of global crypto exchanges, and the advantage will remain with technologically advanced players.