Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage have melted to 10%
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act legislative initiative in the U.S. Senate, drastically lowering their estimate of its approval probability in 2026 to a modest 10%. This decision reflects deep systemic issues that the bill has encountered, extending far beyond just technical regulatory details.
A key factor undermining the initiative's prospects has been unresolved political contradictions. Primarily, this concerns unsettled questions of ethical standards for government officials, as well as controversial provisions related to stablecoin yields. These aspects are sparking fierce debates both among lawmakers and in lobbying circles, significantly slowing the document's progress.
The time window for passing the CLARITY Act is critically narrowing. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks to consider and vote on the bill. This timeframe is extremely limited, given that midterm elections lie ahead, which will inevitably shift the political elite's attention to electoral battles, pushing legislative priorities to the back burner.
In my view, the current situation demonstrates a fundamental problem: the cryptoasset market is becoming a hostage to the U.S. political calendar. Even if the CLARITY Act is ultimately passed, its content could be significantly hollowed out by compromises, reducing its regulatory value for the industry. Investors should factor into their strategies not only market risks but also political uncertainty, which will only intensify in the coming months.