Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act: only 10% for passage in 2026.
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to a modest 10%. This signals growing skepticism within the industry about the prospects of legislatively enshrining clear rules for crypto assets in the current political cycle.
Key obstacles remain unresolved political disagreements that are stalling the initiative's progress. In particular, sharp disputes are sparked by ethical standards for government officials who may face conflicts of interest when dealing with digital currencies, as well as provisions concerning the distribution of yields from stablecoins. These nuances are creating serious cracks in the bipartisan support that initially seemed solid.
The situation is further intensified by the factor of time. After lawmakers return from recess on September 14, supporters of the bill will have only two to three weeks before the campaign season begins ahead of the midterm elections. During this period, the political agenda will inevitably shift toward populist slogans, while complex technical issues of cryptocurrency regulation will take a back seat.
In my view, such a low probability estimate reflects not only technical difficulties but also a systemic problem: the American legislative apparatus is not yet ready to quickly adapt to the realities of the digital economy. Even if the CLARITY Act is not passed this year, its provisions will serve as a foundation for future discussions, but the market should prepare for a prolonged period of regulatory uncertainty.