Banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: why high fees are doomed to decline
The launch of legal cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will inevitably lead to a price war. Initial spreads will be high, but no player will be able to maintain a markup of 5–7% or more in a competitive market. It is a matter of time and the number of participants.
The key factor that will determine the final price for the client is not the bank's appetite at all, but the cost of liquidity and the client's own willingness to pay for a regulated framework. In the first months, banks will be forced to factor in the costs of compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure. Hence the predicted high spreads, which on certain products could reach several basis points.
Why margins will shrink
However, the sustainability of such markups is highly questionable. As soon as several banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to shrink rapidly. The market, not the regulator, will shape the final spread. It will consist of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of hedging and infrastructure, as well as the margin of a specific bank. The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition, the closer prices will be to market levels.
The Central Bank of Russia will regulate access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but it will not set specific buy and sell quotes. Therefore, markups across different banks may vary significantly, especially at the start.
Within each bank, the spread will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of liquidity for the bank itself. Secondary factors, such as the legal structure and infrastructure costs, will take a back seat.
Who will win the battle for the client
In this race, the winner will be the one with the larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks to dominate the new market. This is not just about qualified investors. The mass client is no longer willing to pay simply for the word "bank." Since 2022, the level of trust in retail financial institutions has changed, and users are open to many scenarios except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service.
The picture is quite different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Such a client will choose not a "gray" accountant but a Russian bank if it offers reasonable terms. The question is who will offer these terms first—and here, competition will inevitably drive spreads down to the levels of classic currency markets.
My conclusion: the initial 5–7% is a fee for risk and infrastructure, but within a year or two we will see margins of around 1–3% among major players. The market will inevitably reach equilibrium, and banks that do not optimize costs in advance risk losing clients to more flexible competitors.