Galaxy Digital lowers its forecast for the CLARITY Act to 10%: political risks and time constraints.
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop compared to previous estimates, reflecting the growing complexity of the political situation surrounding cryptocurrency regulation in the United States.
Key obstacles remain unresolved disputes over ethical standards for government officials, as well as disagreements over stablecoin yield mechanisms. These issues, in my view, are not merely technical details but fundamental ideological divides that require deeper consensus than what is currently observed in Congress.
The situation is made particularly acute by the time factor. Lawmakers return from recess on September 14, and they will have only two to three weeks before the midterm elections to advance the initiative. Fitting full-fledged debates and a vote into such a tight schedule is extremely challenging, especially given that the election campaign inevitably diverts attention from complex legislative matters.
In my opinion, this is a troubling signal for the market. Even if the CLARITY Act is not passed this year, its concept will remain an important milestone in the regulatory discussion. However, investors should prepare for prolonged uncertainty, which could amplify volatility in the crypto market until a new political cycle takes shape.