Banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: why competition will crush the margin
The launch of banking operations with cryptocurrency in Russia will inevitably lead to inflated spreads—this is the natural price of entering a new, not yet refined segment. However, as my observations of market cycles show, no player will be able to sustain a markup of 5–7% or higher in a competitive field. The key factor here is not bank greed, but the cost structure and clients' willingness to pay for a regulated framework.
Why spreads will first soar, then collapse
At the initial stage, banks will be forced to factor into the price the cost of liquidity, compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making the first transactions expensive for users. But this period is temporary. As several banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress, and quite quickly.
It is important to understand: the spread is shaped by the market, not the regulator. It is composed of the global price of the crypto asset plus the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the specific bank's margin. The Bank of Russia, in turn, will regulate access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but will not set fixed buy and sell quotes. This means that markups across different banks may vary significantly, especially in the first months.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity in the order book, and the cost of liquidity for the bank itself, which will be needed on balance sheets in significant amounts. Infrastructure and legal costs are only a secondary factor.
Who will win the race for the client
Victory will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy. This is not just about qualified investors—the mass client is not yet ready to pay for the mere word "bank." The stress levels of the retail audience since 2022 are such that users will accept many scenarios except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service.
The picture is completely different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Who will such a client prefer—their own accountant or a Russian bank? The answer is obvious.
My conclusion: the bank cryptocurrency market in Russia will follow the classic path from high margins to competition, resembling the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff. Investors and users should prepare for a period of price volatility, but in the long term, the banks that can offer liquidity and service, not just status, will win. Watch who starts dumping first—that will be a signal of the segment's maturity.