Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The Russian banking sector is preparing for the era of cryptocurrency operations, and the first steps on this path will be marked by high spreads. However, as my analysis of market mechanisms shows, no player will be able to maintain a markup of 5–7% or higher under conditions of healthy competition. The price for the client will be determined not by the bank's appetites, but by the real cost of liquidity, the user's willingness to pay for a regulated framework, and the difference compared to traditional fiat channels.
Why spreads will first soar and then decline
At the start, banks will be forced to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points. This is an inevitable stage of "testing" the system, when the first market participants try to recoup their investments.
Nevertheless, I see no long-term basis for maintaining such margin levels. As soon as several large banks and other regulated players enter the market, competition will begin to rapidly compress spreads. The market, not the regulator, will shape the final price, which will consist of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, and the operational margin of a specific bank.
The Central Bank of Russia, it seems, will focus on regulating access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but will not set specific buy and sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, especially at the initial stage.
The battle for the client: who will win
In this new reality, victory will go to those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks for dominance in the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors but also about the mass-market client. The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism will resemble the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff.
Today, the mass-market client is not willing to pay solely for the word "bank." The level of stress among the retail audience has remained high since 2022, and users are open to many scenarios except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service. Wealthy clients, however, are a completely different story. Large capital continues to migrate between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The choice between one's own accountant and a Russian bank here is obvious.
My conclusion: the banking crypto market in Russia is in for rapid "maturation." The first months will be expensive, but by the end of the year, we will see a significant reduction in spreads. Banks that bet on technological advancement and client service, rather than short-term margins, will become the leaders of the new financial order.