Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The Russian banking sector is preparing for a full-scale entry into the world of digital assets, and the first steps on this path will be accompanied by high fees. However, as my analysis of market mechanisms shows, inflated spreads are a temporary phenomenon that will quickly fade under competitive pressure.
The starting conditions for bank cryptocurrency operations will differ noticeably from classic crypto exchanges. At the initial stage, a markup of 5–7% or higher may seem like the norm, but no player will be able to maintain such figures in a competitive market. The key factor here is not the bank's desire to profit, but the real cost of liquidity, the client's willingness to overpay for a regulated framework, and the difference compared to traditional fiat transfer channels.
Why spreads will first rise and then decline
At the start, banks will have to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could easily reach several basis points. However, as soon as several major banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to shrink rapidly.
It is important to understand that the spread is not an administrative figure set by the regulator. It is shaped by the market and consists of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure expenses, and the specific bank's margin. The central bank will regulate access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but it will not dictate specific buy and sell quotes. Therefore, markups may vary significantly across different banks, especially in the early stages.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real user liquidity in the order book, and the cost of the bank's own liquidity, which must be held on balance sheets in significant amounts. Infrastructure and the legal structure are secondary factors, though not unimportant.
Who will win the race for the client
Victory in this race will go to those with the largest marketing budget and the greatest willingness to take risks for dominance in the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism here resembles the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass client is currently not ready to pay for the mere word "bank." The stress level of the retail audience has remained high since 2022: the Russian user is willing to accept many scenarios to meet their needs, but not an unjustifiably high cost of service. The picture is completely different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whom such a client will prefer—their own accountant or a Russian bank—remains rhetorical.
My view: banks that are the first to build reliable and transparent infrastructure will gain a significant advantage. However, their margins will be quickly eroded by new players. In the long term, those who bet on speed and convenience for large capital, rather than on trying to maintain high fees, will come out on top.