Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: market forecast
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will be marked by inflated spreads, but maintaining a markup of 5–7% or higher in a competitive market will not be possible. Such is my analysis of the current situation, based on an assessment of market mechanisms and the behavior of key players.
Why spreads will be high at first
At the initial stage, banks are forced to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points. This is an inevitable price for entering a new market where regulatory requirements and operational complexities remain high for now.
However, I do not see sustainable preconditions for maintaining spreads at 5–7% or higher. As soon as several banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to shrink rapidly. The key factor here is not the bank's desire to earn, but the objective cost of liquidity and the client's willingness to overpay for a regulated framework compared to familiar fiat transfer channels.
The market, not the regulator, will determine the price
The spread will be shaped by market forces, not directives from above. The Bank of Russia, as I believe, will focus on access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but will not set specific buy and sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks depending on their internal efficiency.
Within an individual bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of its own balance sheet, which will have to be held in significant amounts. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary; operational flexibility takes center stage.
Who will win the race for the client
The winner will be the one with the larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks for dominance in the new economy. This is not just about qualified investors. The mass client is no longer willing to pay for the word "bank"—the level of stress among the retail audience has been too high since 2022. The user accepts many scenarios, but not an unjustifiably high cost of service.
The picture is different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank is rhetorical.
My conclusion: the Russian cryptocurrency operations market will see rapid price equalization. The mechanism will resemble the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff. Banks that are the first to build efficient liquidity and client service will gain a decisive advantage, and inflated spreads will become a thing of the past within the first quarters of active competition.