Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: market forecast
The Russian banking sector is preparing for the large-scale implementation of cryptocurrency operations, and the key question for market participants is the size of spreads. My analysis shows that at the initial stage, markups will be significantly higher than on classic crypto exchanges, but it will not be possible to maintain them at 5–7% or more in the long term. Market mechanisms will inevitably prevail over the ambitions of credit institutions.
Why starting spreads will be high, but not forever
At launch, banks will have to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, which will deter retail consumers. However, as soon as several major players and regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress at a high rate.
It is important to understand: the spread is shaped by the market, not the regulator. It is composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure costs, and the margin of a specific bank. The central bank, in turn, will regulate access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but will not set fixed buy and sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, creating fertile ground for arbitrage and competition.
Who will win the battle for the client
In this struggle, victory will go to those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks in order to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers and competition there are among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism will resemble the currency market more than a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass-market client today is not willing to pay simply for the word "bank." The stress level of the retail audience has remained high since 2022: users are open to many scenarios to meet their needs, but not to unjustifiably high service costs. The picture is different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whom such a client will prefer—their own accountant or a Russian bank—is rhetorical.
My conclusion: banks that are the first to build an efficient liquidity model and do not get greedy at the start will capture the lion's share of the market. The rest will have to catch up by reducing spreads to levels comparable to global exchanges. Otherwise, they risk remaining merely an expensive intermediary that the market will quickly reject.