Banking spreads in Russia's crypto market: why high fees are doomed to decline
The entry of traditional banks into the Russian crypto market will inevitably change the rules of the game. At the initial stage, spreads on digital asset transactions will be noticeably higher than on classic crypto exchanges, but maintaining a markup of 5–7% or more under healthy competition will not be possible. It is a matter of time and the number of players willing to fight for the client.
Why starting spreads will be high
At launch, banks will have to factor into the price not only their own margin but also a whole layer of costs: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points or even more—this is the inevitable price of entering a new market.
However, the sustainability of such spreads is highly questionable. As soon as several banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress. The market, not the regulator, will dictate the final price. The spread will be formed from the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, and the specific banking infrastructure.
The regulator sets the rules, but not the prices
The Bank of Russia, it seems, will focus on regulating access, the composition of participants, and the market architecture, rather than setting specific buy and sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks—and that is normal for an emerging market.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of liquidity that the bank will have to hold on its balance sheet in significant amounts. Secondary factors such as legal structure and infrastructure costs will take a back seat.
Who will win the battle for the client
The winner will be the one with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors—the mass client today is not ready to overpay for the mere word "bank." The stress level of the retail audience has been high since 2022, and users are willing to accept many scenarios except one—an unjustifiably expensive service.
The picture is different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to migrate between jurisdictions, and with an average ticket of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The only question is whom such a client will trust—their own accountant or a Russian bank. The answer seems obvious.
My view: bank spreads in the crypto market are a temporary phenomenon that will disappear as the market becomes saturated. In the long term, those who can offer a competitive price without losing service quality will win. Traditional banks, accustomed to monopoly markups, will face the harsh reality of the crypto economy, where transparency and speed matter more than a big name.