Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The Russian banking sector is preparing to launch cryptocurrency operations, and the first steps will be marked by high spreads. However, in my estimation, it will not be possible to sustain a markup of 5–7% or higher in a competitive market. It is only a matter of time before market mechanisms prevail over the initial appetites of credit institutions.
Why initial spreads will be high but short-lived
At the initial stage, banks will have to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points. This is an inevitable price for entering a new market.
Nevertheless, sustainable spreads in the 5–7% range are a mirage. As soon as several major players and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress at a rapid pace. The market, not the regulator, will dictate the terms. The final price for the client will be shaped by the global cost of the crypto asset, liquidity costs, hedging, and the specific bank's margin.
The role of the Central Bank and market mechanisms
The Bank of Russia, it seems, will focus on regulating access, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, rather than setting fixed quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks. Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of liquidity for the bank itself. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary.
Who will win the battle for the client
Victory will go to those with the largest marketing budget and the highest willingness to take risks in order to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers and competition there are among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. This mechanism resembles the foreign exchange market, not a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass client is currently not ready to pay for the mere word "bank." Since 2022, the level of stress in retail has been high, and users are willing to accept many scenarios except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service. Wealthy clients, however, are a completely different story. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of who they will prefer—their own accountant or a Russian bank—is rhetorical.
My conclusion: bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia are a temporary phenomenon that will quickly be leveled out by competition. In the long term, those who can offer the client not just a regulated framework but real value—speed, reliability, and a fair price—will win. The market has already shown that inflated markups do not survive, and the cryptocurrency segment will be no exception.