Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The Russian banking sector is preparing for a full-scale entry into the cryptocurrency operations market, and pricing is becoming a key issue for participants. My analysis shows that at the initial stage, spreads will be significantly higher than on classic crypto exchanges, but no player will be able to maintain a markup of 5–7% or more in a competitive market.
The starting conditions do indeed imply inflated tariffs. Banks will have to factor into the cost of client services the expenses for liquidity, compliance, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, which will deter retail consumers but will not force institutional clients to abandon the service.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
The market, not the regulator, will determine the fair price. As several banks and other regulated entities enter the field, margins will begin to compress at a high rate. The mechanism will resemble the currency market, where competition among liquidity providers has long led to minimal spreads, rather than a product with an administratively set tariff.
The Central Bank of Russia, apparently, will focus on access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, rather than on directive quotations. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, creating ground for arbitrage and client migration.
Who wins the battle for the client
The decisive factor will not be the size of capital, but the willingness to invest in marketing and take risks for the sake of dominating the new economy. The retail consumer, tired of stress since 2022, is no longer ready to pay for the mere word "bank" — they are looking for speed, transparency, and the absence of bureaucratic delays.
The situation is completely different for wealthy clients. With an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, large capital continues to migrate between jurisdictions, and such users will gladly pay for reliability and efficiency. The question is only who they will trust with their funds — their own accountant or a Russian bank with a built compliance infrastructure. The answer, in my view, is obvious: the bank that first offers a competitive price and impeccable service will take the lion's share of this traffic.
My expert assessment: the reduction of spreads to the level of 1–2% will happen faster than many participants expect — already within the first 12–18 months of active competition. Banks that do not incorporate an aggressive tariff policy into their strategy will have to settle for the role of outsiders in this promising direction.