Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: market forecast
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will be accompanied by inflated spreads, but maintaining margins at 5–7% or higher under real competition will not be possible. The market will inevitably adjust prices, and those counting on long-term excess profits will be mistaken.
At the initial stage, banks will be forced to factor significant costs into the price of the service: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. This will inevitably lead to markups in certain products reaching several basis points. However, as practice shows, such figures are not sustainable in a competitive market.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
The key factor that will determine the price for the client is not the bank's desire to earn, but the real cost of liquidity and the consumer's willingness to overpay for a regulated framework. At the moment when several major players enter the market, margins will begin to shrink rapidly. The pricing mechanism will resemble the currency market, where rates are shaped by supply and demand rather than administrative decisions.
The regulator, represented by the Bank of Russia, will apparently focus on access rules and the composition of participants rather than setting specific quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, especially at the outset. Within an individual credit institution, the spread will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of funding for the bank itself.
Who will win the fight for the client
Victory in this race will go to those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks for dominance in the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. As recent years have shown, the mass client is not willing to pay for the mere word "bank." The stress level of the retail audience has risen significantly since 2022, and users are open to many scenarios—but not to unjustifiably high service costs.
The picture is completely different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to migrate between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank seems rhetorical. Institutional trust and reputation will be decisive arguments.
My conclusion: the Russian cryptocurrency services market will see a rapid compression of margins as soon as competition becomes real. Banks that bet on long-term client relationships and technological superiority rather than short-term markups will take dominant positions in the coming years.