Banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: why high fees are doomed to fall
The Russian banking sector is preparing to launch operations with digital assets, and the first steps on this path will be marked by inflated spreads. However, in my assessment, banks simply will not be able to maintain a markup of 5–7% or higher in a competitive market. The only question is how quickly market mechanisms will bring prices to a fair level.
Why starting spreads will be high
At the beginning of the journey, banks will be forced to factor significant costs into the price. This refers to expenses on liquidity, compliance, hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In the initial stages, the markup could reach several basis points, and in certain products—even exceed that level. This is an inevitable price for entering a new niche, where regulatory requirements place additional strain on balance sheets.
Nevertheless, I do not see sustainable preconditions for the long-term preservation of such spreads. As soon as several major players and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress. History shows that competition in the financial sector quickly corrects abnormally high fees.
Who will dictate prices
It is important to understand: the final spread will be shaped by the market, not the regulator. The Bank of Russia will, of course, control access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but it will not set specific buy and sell quotations. Therefore, markups may vary significantly among different banks—this will depend on their internal efficiency and risk appetite.
The key factors will be the volume of real client liquidity, the cost of raising funds, and the bank's willingness to take risks for the sake of dominance. Secondary factors, such as the legal structure and infrastructure costs, will have less impact on the final price for the client.
In this sense, the market will resemble more of a currency market than a product with an administratively set tariff. The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels.
Mass client vs. large capital
The retail consumer is not yet ready to overpay for the word "bank." The level of stress among the retail audience has remained high since 2022, and the user is willing to accept many scenarios, but not an unjustifiably expensive service. The mass client will seek the cheapest and most convenient ways to meet their needs, and banks are already beginning to realize this.
The picture is completely different for affluent clients. An average ticket of 3–5 million rubles is a level where the client is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Large capital continues to move between countries, and the question of whether it will prefer its own accountant or a Russian bank is rhetorical. In this segment, banks that can offer seamless service and real liquidity will gain a significant advantage.
My conclusion: high spreads at the start are a temporary measure, not a strategy. Banks that bet on long-term presence will be forced to reduce markups within the first months of operation. Otherwise, they will quickly lose clients to more flexible competitors, including crypto exchanges and non-bank providers.