Competition will collapse bank spreads on cryptocurrency: market forecast
The Russian banking sector is preparing for the large-scale adoption of cryptocurrency operations, and pricing is becoming a key issue for market participants. My analysis shows that at the initial stage, spreads will be noticeably higher than on traditional crypto exchanges, but maintaining margins at 5–7% or more in a healthy competitive environment is simply impossible. The market will inevitably adjust these figures.
Contrary to many expectations, the final price for the client will be determined not by bank greed, but by objective costs. This includes the cost of liquidity, risk hedging expenses, and the creation of new infrastructure. These are the components built into the spread, not the desire to earn excess profits from client ignorance.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
At the start, banks will have to factor significant operational costs into the price. Liquidity on balance sheets, legal support, compliance procedures, and technical integration all require serious investment. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making bank offerings less attractive compared to specialized crypto platforms.
However, I see no prerequisites for maintaining spreads in the 5–7% range in the long term. As soon as several major players and regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to shrink rapidly. The market, not the regulator, will shape the fair price. The spread will consist of the global asset price, the cost of liquidity, hedging, and the specific bank's operational margin.
The regulator's role and competition for clients
The Central Bank of Russia, it seems, will take on the function of regulating access rules, participant composition, and market infrastructure. But it will not set specific buy and sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, giving clients a real choice.
Within each bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of liquidity for the bank itself. I would classify infrastructure and legal costs as secondary factors—they are amortized relatively quickly as the client base grows.
The key question is who will win the battle for the user. My forecast: banks with the largest marketing budgets and a willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy will gain the advantage. The mass client is no longer willing to overpay just for the word "bank"—the stress level of the retail audience since 2022 is too high. Users are open to many scenarios, but not to unjustifiably high service costs.
The picture is completely different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to migrate between jurisdictions, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and a hassle-free experience. Such a client will choose a bank over their own accounting department—it is only a matter of time.
My conclusion: The market for bank cryptocurrency operations in Russia will develop along the model of the currency market, not an administratively set tariff. Spreads will inevitably compress to a competitive level, and those who can offer the client not just access to an asset, but a full-fledged, reliable, and fast service at a reasonable price will win.