Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The Russian banking sector is preparing for a full-fledged entry into the cryptocurrency operations market, and the first steps will be accompanied by high service costs for clients. However, as my observations of market cycles show, this situation will change dramatically in the short term.
At the initial stage, banks will be forced to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making spreads significantly wider than on classic crypto exchanges. However, maintaining margins at 5–7% or higher amid growing competition will not be possible.
Formation of a fair price
The key factor that will determine the final cost for the client is not so much the bank's desire to earn, but rather the objective cost of liquidity and the client's own willingness to overpay for a regulated framework. The regulator, represented by the Bank of Russia, will control access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but will not set specific buy and sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real user liquidity, and the cost of liquidity that the bank will have to hold on its balance sheets in significant amounts. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary.
Who will win the race for the client
The winner will be the player with the largest marketing budget and the greatest willingness to take risks for a dominant position in the new economy. This applies not only to qualified investors, but also to the mass-market client. Notably, the retail user in Russia has grown accustomed to stress scenarios since 2022 and is ready to accept many conditions to meet their needs, with one exception — an unjustifiably high cost of service.
The picture is completely different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to actively move between countries, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank is rhetorical. The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition between banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism here resembles the foreign exchange market, rather than a product with an administratively set tariff.
My conclusion: bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia will rapidly compress as new players enter the market. No one will be able to maintain a high margin of 5–7% — market mechanisms and competition will do their job. Those who are already building aggressive scaling into their strategy and are ready to work on thin margins to capture market share will come out ahead.