Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will be accompanied by inflated spreads, but the margin will not be able to hold at 5–7% or higher. The key factor here will not be the greed of credit institutions, but market competition, which will inevitably adjust pricing in favor of the client.
Why spreads will be high at first
At the initial stage, banks are forced to factor into the cost of the product the expenses for liquidity, compliance, hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. These are objective costs that will fall on the shoulders of the first users. However, it will not be possible to maintain a markup of several basis points in a competitive market—as soon as several major players and regulated participants enter the arena, the margin will begin to shrink.
It is important to understand: the final spread is formed not by the regulator, but by the market itself. It is composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, and the infrastructure costs of a specific bank. The central bank, in turn, will regulate the rules of access, the composition of participants, and the infrastructure, but will not set fixed buy and sell quotes. This means that the markup may vary significantly among different banks.
Factors determining the spread within a bank
Within a single credit institution, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real user liquidity, and the cost of liquidity that the bank will have to hold on its balance sheets. Secondary factors will remain infrastructure costs and the legal structure. The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels.
The mechanism here resembles the foreign exchange market, not a product with an administratively set tariff. As practice shows, a retail client is not willing to overpay for the mere word "bank." The level of stress and distrust has remained high since 2022, but the user is ready to tolerate many scenarios except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service.
Who will win the race for the client
A completely different picture emerges with wealthy clients. Large capital continues to actively move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whom such a client will prefer—their own accountant or a Russian bank—remains rhetorical. Victory in this race will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks for a dominant position in the new economy.
My view: the Russian cryptocurrency services market awaits a rapid cooling of margins. Banks that bet on a long-term strategy and low spreads will capture a loyal audience, while players trying to monetize scarcity will be left on the sidelines. Competition here is the user's main ally.