Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The launch of banking operations with cryptocurrency in Russia will be marked by inflated spreads that will significantly exceed the indicators of classic crypto exchanges. However, as my analysis of market mechanisms shows, banks simply will not be able to maintain a markup of 5–7% or higher under conditions of healthy competition. The key factor here will not be the greed of financial organizations, but the objective cost of liquidity and clients' willingness to pay for a regulated framework.
At the initial stage, spreads will indeed be high. Banks will have to factor into the price the costs of liquidity, compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points. However, this level is not sustainable—as several major players enter the market and other regulated participants appear, margins will begin to shrink rapidly.
The market, not the regulator, will determine the price
It is important to understand: the spread will not be set directive from above. The central bank will focus on access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but not on specific buy and sell quotes. The final markup will be formed from the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure expenses, and the margin of a specific bank. Within a single organization, the spread will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of funding on the balance sheet.
Based on my estimates, the pricing mechanism will resemble more of a currency market than a product with an administratively set tariff. The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels.
Mass client vs. large capital
The retail consumer today is not ready to overpay just for the word "bank." Since 2022, the level of stress among the retail audience has grown so much that the user is willing to accept many scenarios, except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service. They would rather meet their need through alternative channels than pay for a brand.
The picture is completely different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to migrate between jurisdictions, and with an average ticket of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of "your own accountant or a Russian bank" here is rhetorical—it is obvious that the choice will fall on a regulated and reliable channel.
My conclusion: a short-term period of high spreads is inevitable, but it will not last long. Banks that are the first to build efficient infrastructure and offer competitive terms will capture a dominant market share. The rest will have to either catch up or settle for the role of outsiders in the new economy.