Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The Russian banking sector is preparing for the large-scale adoption of cryptocurrency operations, and the first steps on this path promise to be costly for clients. However, as my analysis of market mechanisms shows, high spreads on buying and selling digital assets are a temporary phenomenon that will inevitably fade under competitive pressure.
At the start, banks will be forced to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In some products, the markup could reach several basis points, making bank services considerably more expensive than on classic crypto exchanges. Nevertheless, holding spreads at 5–7% or higher in a competitive market will not be possible—it is only a matter of time.
Why spreads will first rise and then collapse
The key factor determining the cost for the end consumer is not so much the bank's desire to profit, but the real expenses of maintaining a regulated framework. The Bank of Russia is expected to regulate access rules, the composition of participants, and market infrastructure, but it will not set specific quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, and the spread itself will become a derivative of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, and the margin of a particular organization.
As several major players and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress. The mechanism will resemble the foreign exchange market, where prices are shaped by supply and demand rather than administratively set tariffs. The more liquidity providers there are and the greater the competition among banks, the closer prices will move to market levels.
Who will win the battle for the client
The mass consumer today is not willing to overpay for the mere word "bank." The stress level of the retail audience has remained high since 2022, and users are open to many scenarios, but not to unjustifiably high service costs. A different picture emerges for affluent clients. Large capital continues to actively move between jurisdictions, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and a hassle-free experience.
In this struggle, victory will go to those with the larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks for a dominant position in the new economy. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank becomes rhetorical.
My conclusion: bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia are a temporary "novelty tax" that will disappear as the market matures. Investors and businesses should wait 6–12 months after the launch of the first products to gain access to fair market prices rather than the inflated tariffs of the early stage.