Banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: a high bar at the start and competitive pressure
The Russian market for bank cryptocurrency operations is just beginning to take shape, and the first steps will be costly for clients. However, in my assessment, current forecasts of markups of 5–7% and higher will not stand the test of time — competition will inevitably drive these spreads down to market levels.
At the start, banks will be forced to factor significant costs into pricing: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, reflecting the real cost of services in an immature market. This is a natural stage when early players try to recoup investments in new directions.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
I see no sustainable prerequisites for maintaining a 5–7% margin in a competitive market. As soon as several major banks and other regulated participants enter the arena, the fight for clients will begin, quickly adjusting prices. The market, not the regulator, will determine the final spread. It will be shaped by the global price of the asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, and the infrastructure costs of a specific bank.
The central bank will likely focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but will not dictate buy or sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across banks depending on their internal efficiency and client base.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of funding. Secondary factors, such as the legal structure and IT infrastructure, will have less impact on the final price.
Who will win the fight for clients
Success in this race will be determined not only by marketing budgets but also by the willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy. This is not just about qualified investors. The mass-market client today is not ready to overpay simply for the word "bank." The stress level of the retail audience has been high since 2022, and users are willing to accept many scenarios except one — an unjustifiably high cost of service.
The picture is quite different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to migrate between jurisdictions, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and a hassle-free experience. Such a client will choose a bank over their own accountant — it is a matter of time and trust.
My conclusion: the market for bank crypto operations in Russia will move from elite to mass faster than many expect. Banks that are the first to build an efficient model with low costs will gain a decisive advantage. The rest will have to catch up, cutting margins to levels that today seem unprofitable.