Banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: why the market will quickly crush a 5-7% margin
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will be marked by inflated spreads, but the margin will not be able to hold at 5–7% or higher. Under competitive conditions, such figures are doomed to rapid decline. The key factor will not be banks' appetite for excess profits, but the cost structure: the cost of liquidity, clients' willingness to pay for a regulated framework, and the difference compared to familiar fiat transfer channels.
Why spreads will be high at first
At the start, banks are forced to factor significant operational costs into the price. This refers to expenses for compliance, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup can indeed reach several basis points of the underlying asset's value. However, as practice shows, no competitive market can sustain a spread of 5–7%.
As several banks and other regulated players enter the arena, the margin will begin to shrink at a rapid pace. Price formation is the prerogative of the market, not the regulator. The final spread will be shaped by the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, and the infrastructure of a specific bank. At the same time, the Bank of Russia will regulate access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but will not set directive buy and sell quotes.
Who will win the fight for the client
In the new economy, victory will go to those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks for dominance. Interestingly, retail clients are not yet ready to overpay simply for the word "bank." The audience's stress level has remained high since 2022, but users are willing to accept many scenarios except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service.
The situation is completely different with affluent clients. Large capital continues to migrate between jurisdictions, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, an investor is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank remains rhetorical. The more liquidity providers and banking competition there are, the closer prices get to market levels, and the pricing mechanism will resemble the currency market rather than an administrative tariff.
My view: The Russian bank cryptocurrency market repeats the classic development model of any financial instrument—from elitism to democratization. Banks that are the first to build efficient infrastructure and do not get greedy at the start will capture the lion's share of the affluent audience. The rest will have to catch up, and the price of that catch-up will be measured not in margin percentages, but in lost clients.