UBS has radically increased its bet on bitcoin's rise: exposure to call options on the ETF has grown 24-fold.
Swiss banking giant UBS is demonstrating an impressive shift in its strategy regarding digital assets. According to my analysis of fresh regulatory data, as of the end of the second quarter of 2024, the bank recorded call options on 1.95 million shares of BlackRock's bitcoin ETF IBIT. This is a colossal jump compared to the 80,000 shares the bank held just three months earlier — growth of roughly 24 times.
Such momentum is not merely a speculative gesture. It reflects a fundamental rethinking by institutional players of bitcoin's role in a portfolio. UBS's direct position in IBIT itself also grew by 12% over the quarter, reaching 407,890 shares, equivalent to approximately $13.6 million at current prices. Notably, the bank simultaneously reduced its defensive position: exposure to put options decreased by 53%, to 143,300 shares.
This configuration — aggressive growth in calls alongside a reduction in puts — is a classic sign of bullish sentiment. It appears UBS is not just hedging risks but making a deliberate bet on further price rallies. While retail investors hesitate, large institutions, judging by these figures, are using any correction to build long-term exposure.
It is important to emphasize that this is not an isolated case. UBS's actions align with the broader trend of capital inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs from traditional financial majors. However, the scale of the increase specifically in derivatives is striking: the bank clearly expects heightened upside volatility in the medium term, possibly linking this to upcoming macroeconomic decisions or the halving.
In my view, we are witnessing a transition from a phase of cautious testing to a phase of confident accumulation. If other banks follow UBS's example, this could create additional pressure on supply and accelerate price growth. However, it is worth remembering that such a concentrated bet on calls increases the risk of a sharp correction in a negative scenario, as market makers will have to actively hedge their positions.