Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The Russian banking sector is preparing to introduce cryptocurrency operations, and the first steps will be marked by high spreads. However, as my analysis of market dynamics shows, maintaining a markup of 5–7% or higher under real competition will be practically impossible. It is only a matter of time before market mechanisms prevail over administrative ambitions.
Why starting spreads will be inflated, but not for long
At the initial stage, banks will be forced to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making services expensive for the end consumer. This is a natural price for "pioneering" in a regulated field.
However, I see no sustainable prerequisites for maintaining spreads in the 5–7% range. As soon as several major banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to shrink at a rapid pace. The key factor here is not the bank's desire to earn, but the objective cost of executing a transaction and the client's willingness to pay for security and speed.
It is important to understand: the spread will be shaped by the market, not the regulator. It will be formed from the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, and the infrastructure costs of a specific bank. The Central Bank of Russia, in turn, will focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but will not dictate buy or sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly among different banks, especially at the outset.
Who will win the race for the client
Within an individual bank, the spread will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of liquidity for the credit institution itself. Secondary factors, such as infrastructure and legal structure, will take a back seat. Victory will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy.
The mass client today is not willing to overpay simply for the word "bank." The stress level of the retail audience since 2022 is such that users are willing to accept many scenarios, except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service. Wealthy clients, however, are a completely different story. Large capital continues to migrate between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whether they will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank is rhetorical.
My conclusion: the market for bank crypto operations in Russia will resemble the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff. Competition will inevitably compress spreads to market levels, and those who can offer the client not just "regulatory compliance" but real value—speed, liquidity, and an honest price—will win.