Supply pressure intensifies: why bitcoin cannot find support
The market of the first cryptocurrency is entering a phase of increased supply-side pressure. My observations of on-chain metrics show a worrying dynamic: inflows from large holders to exchanges are rising, while spot demand remains sluggish. This is a classic scenario that often precedes a correction.
The key indicator — the Whale Inflow Ratio on Binance — shows a noticeable increase in the share of large transactions in the total volume of deposits. It is important to understand: moving coins to an exchange does not always mean an immediate sale, but it expands the liquid supply of BTC available for trading or hedging. Exchange reserves have already turned upward, and the spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) for whales has shifted from an active buying zone to a neutral one.
The main question now is not whether large players are selling directly. What is critically important is whether current spot demand can absorb the bitcoin returning to exchanges. If inflows and reserves continue to grow, and CVD finally moves into the selling zone, pressure on the price will increase significantly. For now, we are only seeing the first phase of this process.
Chasing the perfect bottom is a path to losses
In this context, I want to specifically address a mistake that many market participants make. Attempts to "catch" the absolute bottom are a strategy that rarely yields results. In a prolonged bear market, the average cost basis of holders inevitably declines: weaker hands lock in losses, and coins move to institutional and patient players.
In such a phase, gradual accumulation over a long horizon looks far more rational. The window of opportunity usually remains open longer than most expect, but it is precisely at this moment that retail investors tend to exit positions. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $63,400, having lost 3% over the week.
My conclusion: the current market structure requires caution. Until we see a sustained recovery in spot demand or a reversal of reserves downward, any rally will be vulnerable to new waves of supply-side pressure.