Polymarket takes betting to a new level: now we predict Pokémon card prices
The decentralized prediction platform Polymarket is expanding its horizons. Now traders can place bets on the price dynamics of collectible Pokémon cards. This is not just entertainment — it is a new asset class for prediction markets, where bets are placed on the rise or fall in value of specific cards and sealed sets.
The mechanics of the contracts are tied to quotes for raw cards from the Collectr app, which aggregates price data on collectible items. More than ten Pokémon-themed markets are already operating on the platform. Organizers promptly close outdated contracts and open fresh ones, following market cycles.
Details of the first markets
The Squirtle market is a telling example. Traders buy Up or Down contracts depending on whether the price of the raw Mega Evolution Promos №039 card will exceed $28.23 by August 31. Currently, the probability of an increase is estimated at 39%, and since launch this figure has dropped by 11 percentage points, although it all started almost at parity.
Markets for Charizard ex, Pikachu ex, Mega Gengar ex, and Bulbasaur have a similar structure. Sealed sets are traded separately — booster boxes and Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection kits. Interestingly, most markets are currently bearish: the chances of Celebrations rising are estimated at only 22%, while for Bulbasaur they are 64%. The largest liquidity is concentrated in the Mega Gengar ex contract, where trading volume reaches $2,300.
Context and regulatory risks
The launch coincided with a cooling of the secondary market. Some contracts reflect expectations of further price declines: since late July, buyers have shifted to new releases, which is provoking volatility on the platform. However, volumes are still modest — from a few hundred to a thousand dollars per market. This is a drop in the ocean compared to the record weeks of political and cryptocurrency prediction platforms.
In 2026, Polymarket has already moved far beyond elections and token prices. In July, the platform hosted the largest bet on the FIFA World Cup, and contracts on CryptoPunks, Pudgy Penguins, and Banksy street art appeared in the collectibles section. Pokémon cards have organically fit into the "culture and art" category.
The idea behind Pokémon markets is simple: collectible card prices change daily, data is open and accessible, and the target audience overlaps with crypto traders. Such contracts are easy to settle, and they attract repeat trades.
But this scale has a downside — regulatory costs. Analysts are increasingly drawing parallels between prediction markets and stock trading, rather than niche bookmaking services. Lawmakers are reaching the same conclusion. Last week, Baltimore authorities filed a lawsuit against Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing the platforms of operating as illegal bookmakers. And shortly before that, the New York City Council initiated a separate investigation into the marketing of prediction platforms.
It remains unclear whether collectors, for whom the new markets were launched, will come to the platform. Trading volumes rather demonstrate interest than confidence. Pokémon fans already track prices in free apps — to work with Polymarket, they will have to connect a crypto wallet and fund it.
My verdict: This is a bold but logical step by Polymarket toward mass culture. However, it is regulatory pressure, not a lack of demand, that will be the main test for such niche markets. If the platform survives the legal battles, we will see explosive growth in such contracts — from comics to vintage clothing.