Polymarket takes betting to a new level: now traders earn on Pokémon cards
The decentralized prediction platform Polymarket continues to expand its horizons by launching trading on the price dynamics of collectible Pokémon cards. Users can now place bets on the rise or fall in value of both individual rare specimens and sealed sets.
A new niche: from politics to pop culture
The mechanics of the contracts are based on quotes for raw cards from the Collectr app, which aggregates price data on collectible items. More than ten markets dedicated to the Pokémon universe are already operating on the platform. After old contracts expire, organizers quickly open new ones, maintaining continuity of trading.
A striking example is the Squirtle market. Traders are buying Up or Down contracts depending on whether the price of the raw Mega Evolution Promos №039 card will exceed $28.23 by August 31. At the time of analysis, the probability of an increase is estimated at 39%, and this figure has dropped by 11 percentage points since launch, although it started from nearly balanced levels. Similar markets are open for Charizard ex, Pikachu ex, Mega Gengar ex, and Bulbasaur. Sealed booster boxes and Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection sets are traded separately.
Interestingly, most markets are currently positioned for price declines. The odds of an increase for Celebrations are estimated at only 22%, while for Bulbasaur they stand at 64%. The greatest liquidity is concentrated in the Mega Gengar ex contract: trading volume has reached approximately $2,300.
A paradigm shift and regulatory risks
The launch coincided with a noticeable cooling of the secondary market. Individual contracts reflect expectations of further declines: since late July, buyers have shifted to new releases, forcing the platform to capture fresh fluctuations. Volumes remain modest—from a few hundred to thousands of dollars per market—which is only a small fraction of the record weeks for political and cryptocurrency predictions.
In 2026, Polymarket has confidently moved beyond elections and token prices. In July, the platform hosted the largest bet on the FIFA World Cup, and in the collectibles section, contracts on the value of CryptoPunks, Pudgy Penguins, and Banksy street art are already available. Pokémon cards are categorized under "culture and art," where markets on auction records and the most expensive artists have also appeared.
The idea is simple: collectible card prices change daily, data is open and accessible, and the target audience overlaps with crypto traders. Such contracts are easy to settle, and they attract repeat trades. However, this scaling has a downside—regulatory pressure. Analysts are increasingly drawing parallels between prediction markets and stock trading, and lawmakers are reaching the same conclusions. Last week, Baltimore authorities filed a lawsuit against Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of illegal bookmaking activities. Earlier, the New York City Council initiated a separate investigation into prediction platforms.
It remains unclear whether collectors, for whom the new markets were launched, will come to the platform. Trading volumes point more to curiosity than confidence, and Pokémon fans already track prices in free apps. To use Polymarket, they would need to connect a crypto wallet and fund it—a barrier that could prove decisive.
My view: Polymarket's expansion into the collectible card niche is a logical step in diversifying its product line, but for now it is more about image. Real liquidity will only come when the platform resolves regulatory uncertainty; otherwise, all these markets will remain an experimental sandbox for enthusiasts rather than a full-fledged financial instrument.