Crypto news

The market of the first cryptocurrency is entering a phase of heightened uncertainty. My analysis of data flows from leading exchanges points to the formation of a worrying signal: BTC supply is beginning to rise, while spot demand shows clear weakness. This is a classic combination that historically precedes corrective movements.

Whales are becoming active, but buyers are silent

A key indicator — the Whale Inflow Ratio on Binance — shows a noticeable increase in the share of large transactions in the total volume of deposits. It is important to understand: moving coins to an exchange does not always mean an immediate sale. However, this creates excess supply available for trading or hedging, which in itself exerts psychological pressure on the market.

At the same time, bitcoin exchange reserves have turned upward after a prolonged period of decline, and the spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) for large players has shifted from a zone of active buying to a neutral one. This suggests that "whales" have lost their former appetite for accumulation.

The main question now is not whether large holders are selling, but whether current spot demand is capable of absorbing the volumes returning to exchanges. If inflows continue to grow and CVD finally turns negative, pressure on the price could intensify significantly.

In search of the bottom: the mistake of the majority

In such conditions, many traders try to guess the absolute bottom, but this is a strategically flawed approach. In a prolonged bear market, the average cost basis of holders declines: weaker participants lock in losses, passing coins into the hands of patient and financially stable players.

In this phase, gradual accumulation over a long horizon looks like a much more rational strategy than trying to catch the perfect entry point. The "window of opportunity" usually remains open longer than the market expects — and it is precisely at this moment that most investors, unable to withstand the tension, exit their positions.

At the time of writing this analysis, bitcoin is trading around $63,400, having lost approximately 3% over the week. In current conditions, it is crucial to monitor the dynamics of exchange reserves and the behavior of large holders — these metrics will provide a more objective picture than short-term price fluctuations.

My professional opinion: the market is at a point of bifurcation. If supply continues to dominate, we may see a test of the $58,000–$60,000 zone in the medium term. However, it is precisely such periods that create the best opportunities for entry — the main thing is not to give in to emotions and to act systematically.