Polymarket bursts into the world of collectible cards: bets on the rise and fall of Pokemon prices
The decentralized prediction platform Polymarket continues to expand its horizons. This time, the focus is on the Pokemon trading card market. Users can now trade contracts on the rise or fall in value of specific cards and sealed sets, opening new opportunities for hedging and speculation in this niche market.
The mechanics are simple and elegant: contracts track quotes for raw cards from the Collectr app, which values collectible items. More than ten Pokemon-themed markets have already been launched on the platform. As old contracts close, organizers open new ones, maintaining continuity of the trading process.
Details of the first contracts
Take, for example, the Squirtle market. Traders buy Up or Down contracts on whether the price of the raw Mega Evolution Promos No. 039 card will exceed $28.23 by the close on August 31. Currently, the odds of an increase are estimated at 39%, which is 11 percentage points below the starting values. Markets for Charizard ex, Pikachu ex, Mega Gengar ex, and Bulbasaur are structured similarly. Sealed sets are traded separately, including booster boxes and Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection kits.
Interestingly, most markets are set for a decline. Traders estimate the odds of Celebrations rising at just 22%, while for Bulbasaur this figure reaches 64%. The largest trading volume is in the Mega Gengar ex contract — around $2,300.
Syncing with the cooling secondary market
The launch coincides with a noticeable cooling of the secondary market. Some contracts reflect expectations of further price declines: since late July, buyers have shifted to new releases, triggering fresh fluctuations in quotes. Volumes are still modest — most markets collect from a few hundred to a thousand dollars, which is only a small fraction of the record weeks for political and cryptocurrency prediction platforms.
This initiative is part of Polymarket's broader strategy to move beyond elections and token prices. In July, the platform hosted its largest bet on the FIFA World Cup, and the collectibles section already includes contracts on the entry price of CryptoPunks, Pudgy Penguins, and Banksy street art.
Regulatory risks and prospects
The idea behind Pokemon markets is simple: collectible card prices change daily, data is open and accessible, and the target audience overlaps with crypto traders. However, this scaling has a downside — regulatory costs. Analysts increasingly say that prediction markets are closer to stock trading than to niche betting services. Moreover, Baltimore authorities have filed a lawsuit against Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing the platforms of operating illegal bookmakers, and the New York City Council has initiated a separate investigation.
It remains unclear whether collectors, for whom the new markets were launched, will come to the platform. Trading volumes show more interest than confidence, and Pokemon fans already track prices in free apps. To work with Polymarket, they will need to connect a crypto wallet and fund it.
My view: Polymarket's experiment with collectible cards is a logical step in diversifying its product line, but it is unlikely to become a mass growth driver. The main value of such markets lies in attracting a new audience and testing mechanics that could be scaled to more liquid assets. However, regulatory pressure remains the main risk for the entire prediction market industry.