Bitcoin sell-side pressure is rising: whales have become more active, while spot demand is lagging behind.
The market of the first cryptocurrency is entering a phase of heightened uncertainty. My analysis of data flows from leading exchanges shows that the structure of BTC supply is undergoing noticeable changes: the share of large transactions in inflows to Binance, measured by the Whale Inflow Ratio metric, is showing steady growth. This signals that whales are beginning to move significant volumes of coins to trading platforms.
The key nuance here is that deposits to an exchange do not always mean immediate profit-taking. However, they significantly increase the pool of liquidity available for selling or hedging, which in itself creates additional pressure on the price. Exchange BTC reserves, which had been declining for a long time, have turned upward — this confirms a shift in the trend of coin movement.
Special attention should be paid to the behavior of the spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) for large players. This indicator has moved from the active buying zone to a neutral one, indicating that bulls have lost the initiative. The key question now is not whether whales are selling directly, but whether current spot demand can absorb the volumes returning to exchanges. If inflows from large holders continue to grow and CVD finally moves into negative territory, pressure on quotes could intensify many times over.
Chasing the bottom is a dead-end path
Against this backdrop, the position of the well-known technical analyst under the pseudonym Crypto Dan is noteworthy, as he criticizes the very idea of finding the absolute bottom. In a prolonged bear market, the average cost basis of coins declines: weaker holders lock in losses, passing assets into the hands of patient investors with strong nerves. In this phase, gradual accumulation over a long horizon looks like a more rational strategy than trying to guess the local minimum.
The "window of opportunity" in such markets is typically open longer than most participants expect, but it is precisely at this moment that the crowd usually exits positions. At the time of writing this analysis, BTC is trading around $63,400, showing a weekly decline of approximately 3%. I previously noted the risks of a pullback to the $58,500 level, and current dynamics confirm that this scenario remains in effect.
My conclusion: The market is in a fragile equilibrium. Until we see either significant growth in spot demand or an exhaustion of whale inflows, any rally will be vulnerable. A dollar-cost averaging strategy over the long term looks preferable to attempts at speculative bottom-fishing.