MiCA did not bring down USDT: the global stablecoin market did not notice European restrictions
The restriction of access to USDT on regulated European platforms, triggered by the entry into force of the MiCA regulation, has not led to a significant global outflow from the largest "stablecoin." My analysis of data from Artemis Analytics and an independent study by economists from LUISS University and the University of Surrey confirms: the European regulatory shock turned out to be local, not systemic.
Alex Wesley, a representative of Artemis, stated directly that changes in European regulation did not provoke a noticeable reduction in USDT supply or a large-scale movement of liquidity between blockchains and trading platforms. "The data does not indicate a notable change in the supply or demand for USDT that could be directly linked to MiCA taking effect in Europe. The regulation did not cause a major migration between platforms or networks," he emphasized.
European platforms switched to USDC, but nothing changed globally
Artemis's conclusions are supported by a study by Nicola Borri and Kirill Shakhnov. The authors analyzed the consequences of USDT restrictions on European crypto exchanges and found that MiCA significantly altered the trading structure on individual regulated platforms but had almost no impact on the aggregate market shares and trading volumes of the largest "stablecoins." On exchanges focused on the European market, the share of USDC rose by 0.82 standard deviations, and the ratio of trading volumes to the competitor increased by 0.54 standard deviations. However, at the global level, no comparable redistribution occurred. "Aggregate market shares and trading volumes remain almost unchanged," the study states.
USDT retained its leadership
Market data also does not show a sharp decline in USDT's role after the end of the MiCA transitional period. As of July 31, approximately 183.46 billion USDT were in circulation, with a market capitalization of about $183.27 billion. Independent Stablecoin Beat estimated Tether's share of the total "stablecoin" supply at the end of July at 61.2%. At the same time, the entire market contracted by about 1.2% over the month, so the slight decrease in USDT supply did not occur in isolation. These figures do not indicate a global outflow from USDT following the tightening of European rules.
Activity is growing outside Europe
Artemis noted that the primary on-chain activity with USDT continues to expand in regions outside the EU. The number of daily users on BNB Chain grew from approximately 318,000 in June 2024 to 1.56 million in July 2026. On Tron, the figure increased by 44% over the same period, reaching about 908,000 daily users. Wesley believes that this dynamic reflects the expanding use of digital dollars in global and emerging markets rather than a migration of users directly from Europe. "There is no clear inflection point in the on-chain data coinciding with MiCA," he noted.
USDT maintaining its leadership by market capitalization does not mean dominance across all metrics. In June, the adjusted transfer volume of "stablecoins" reached a record $1.79 trillion. About $1.21 trillion, or 67%, was attributed to USDC, while USDT accounted for approximately $576 billion, or 32%. The resilience of dollar-token usage outside the EU is explained by the expansion of use cases not directly related to crypto trading. An example is the Argentine platform Lemon, which processed $9.3 billion in transactions in 2025, 60% more than the previous year. The number of users increased by 70% to nearly 1.8 million, and the volume of "stablecoin" transactions grew by 45%. "We are witnessing a shift from 'stablecoins' as a store of value to 'stablecoins' as financial infrastructure," said Ignacio Jimenez, a representative of Lemon.
Within Europe, the effect of regulation remains significant. The transitional period for crypto platforms under MiCA ended on July 1. Tether did not seek European authorization for USDT, after which a number of regulated services restricted access to the asset.
My comment: The data clearly indicates: MiCA is not a global turning point but a regional adjustment. The stablecoin market continues to develop on its own momentum, driven by demand in emerging markets, where digital dollars are becoming basic financial infrastructure. European regulators have set a precedent, but so far they have not been able to change the balance of power in the global stablecoin ecosystem. The question is whether other jurisdictions will follow the EU's example, or whether USDT will continue to dominate regardless of local restrictions.