Short squeeze on Binance drove bitcoin to $75,000: what's next?
The current momentum of bitcoin, which has led to a recovery to the $75,000 mark, is predominantly mechanical in nature. Analyzing data from the Binance futures market, I see a classic picture of a chain liquidation of short positions, which triggered the sharp vertical surge. This is not organic movement, but the result of forced short covering, creating artificial buying pressure.
The Short Squeeze Value indicator on Binance has reached 6.94 — the highest reading in the past two years. For comparison: in November 2024, the same metric stood at 5.38. Such dynamics indicate that the futures market is overheated, and the bullish impulse is fueled solely by liquidations, not by real demand from spot buyers.
Note: aggressive short squeezes of this scale are historically characteristic of bearish phases. When the "fuel" for further liquidations runs out, and organic demand fails to compensate for this imbalance, the risk of a sharp pullback increases significantly. This is a key signal for cautious investors.
A bullish signal on the horizon?
However, there are also encouraging indicators. The Bitcoin Bull Score metric has returned to the bullish zone for the first time since October 2025, exceeding the 60 mark. Notably, even in May, when bitcoin was storming $82,000, this indicator failed to surpass that threshold. Currently, six out of ten key metrics are showing a "green" signal, including demand growth, stablecoin liquidity, and investors' realized price.
The sustainability of the Bull Score above 60 is a necessary but insufficient factor to confirm a new bullish cycle. If the indicator continues to rise and holds at these levels, we could witness a trend reversal. However, I would not rush to optimistic conclusions: the combination of a mechanical rally in futures and the first signs of recovering spot demand creates an extremely volatile picture. The coming weeks will be decisive in determining the market's direction.
My opinion: the current rise is a warning to bears, but not a guarantee of a bullish reversal. Watch the spot volume and Bull Score dynamics before deciding to enter a position.