Coinbase CEO predicts a reversal: the bear cycle is coming to an end
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that the spot cryptocurrency market is on the verge of a new phase of growth. He bases his optimistic forecast on an analysis of historical cycles: each previous downturn lasted approximately 370–380 days, and the current bearish trend is already close to completing this phase.
Armstrong made this statement after a meeting at the White House, where Donald Trump invited key players from the crypto industry and regulators. This signal boosted market confidence: bitcoin (BTC) responded with a rise and surpassed the $78,000 mark.
Trading Activity: Decline and Signs of a Reversal
The forecast came amid a prolonged decline in volumes. In July, spot trading on the 14 largest exchanges fell by 21.7% — to $429.0 billion from $547.9 billion the previous month. The decline affected all platforms: Binance retained its leadership with $196.5 billion and a 45.8% share, while Coinbase lost 26.4%, and Bitfinex plunged by as much as 59.7%.
The derivatives market also contracted by 11.1%, to $3.03 trillion. At the same time, the ratio of futures to spot trades rose from 6.21x to 7.06x, indicating increased use of leverage — traders are betting on a swift recovery.
Sentiment remained depressed: the fear and greed index dropped to 29 points on August 13, reflecting the dominant fear among participants. However, the situation changed dramatically on August 19, when the U.S. Treasury Department announced a doubling of bond buyback volumes — to $4 billion per operation, with the number of such operations per quarter rising from two to four. The new schedule takes effect on September 9. Treasury yields fell sharply: ten-year notes lost 5.7 basis points, dropping to 4.647%, while thirty-year bonds lost 9 points, to 5.196%.
In those same days, Donald Trump reported that authorities are discussing a large purchase of bitcoin for reserves. Since then, the BTC price has gained about 22% and held near the $78,700 mark on Saturday. The fear and greed index immediately jumped into the "greed" zone, reaching 71 points.
Armstrong's Cyclical Logic
Armstrong ties his position to the length of the cycle. According to him, spot cryptocurrency trading has been in a bearish phase for about a year. Historically, such periods lasted around 370–380 days.
"We are almost at the point where people start saying — this cycle is probably ending. So, it's time for the next bull market in crypto," he noted.
He highlights two key factors supporting this scenario. The first is the Senate vote on the CLARITY bill, scheduled for September 15. The second is the period from October to December, which he calls traditionally strong for bitcoin due to halving cycles (reductions in miner rewards).
"I think there is a high probability that we are on the threshold of a new bull market for spot cryptocurrency trading," he summarized.
From my point of view, the combination of macroeconomic easing (falling yields) and clear political signals in favor of the crypto industry creates a rare configuration for a trend reversal. However, investors should remember: cyclicality is not a guarantee, but merely a statistical pattern. The key triggers will be the outcome of the CLARITY vote and real steps toward creating a strategic reserve in BTC.